A prelude to PTI’s deadline of November 30th

Whilst India’s Prime Minister is focusing on making a cleaner India with the clean up campaign rolled out across and as well his instructions to the private corporate sector that for their Community Social Responsibility they build toilets starting from schools instead of wasting billions on adverts. Pakistan is struggling to clean the house where some politicians come for a debate every now and then. Yes! I am very sure that whilst it may be easier to clean whole of India of the filth. We may not be able to clear off the filth sitting in our assemblies in this generation at least or maybe unless we do something about it.

Our Holiness Imran Khan has given a new date of November 30th for changing the fate of Pakistanis. I have been very curious for the last couple of days as to why this specific date is being flagged. So I have been thinking. What is going on in the head of our Holiness? Number One logic comes out is that maybe it’s a Sunday and he can hope to get a full house both on the ground or in front of the TV i.e. maximum TRP’s . But its not that only. Something is there. So I thought more. Sat down with a cup of coffee and started browsing over the net. Apart from the fact that when in Nov 30th 1922 when Hitler delivered a speech to 50,000 socialists . Nothing significant came out. Than I watched a news show featuring Sheikh Rasheed. Now that gave me a hint. The man looks tense. Is it because of his arrest warrants which have been doled out over his recent hate speeches? Or is it the time when in Poker you go all in with your bets. The man’s face is stressed. Whilst our Holiness Imran Khan is trying to mobilize people all over Punjab. Whatever any one might say on average; he is getting a crowd of 15-20000 in each of his rally. Barring the 10-15% repeat crowd. That still leaves him with at least 15,000 crowd on average in each of the constituency. Not enough for winning a seat . But if he multiplies the same by the over 100 constituencies in Punjab . Than he can have his Million people on November 30th in Islamabad.

The question is why would the million people come out now when not even 100,000 turned up in August earlier this year. After all now his party looks more divided and his supporters disenchanted. I am sure his Holiness and his crew is pulling out all in the bag of tricks including the campaign on World Cup 1992 where its being reminded that he pulled a victory out of defeat forgetting that had Australia would have lost to West Indies in the last group game. Pakistan would have been out of Semis. Wonder what was the strategy unless West Indies took a dive ? Just saying ! Just to ensure that the image of the Kaptaan is seen of a winning one. For sure there is unsettlement in their ranks reason such campaigns. Of course the money is also running out and investors wary of putting more behind his holiness.

Now have heard in some circles that Nawaz Sharif would be losing the seat of the Prime Minister ship by November 30th or around it. The question is why as many look confident including Sheikh Rasheed? Lets put things in perspective. Nawaz Sharif has done a power trip to China recently and has gone to UK. Whilst UK trip for him can be also visiting like Family and Friends whilst stopping by at 10 Downing Street to make it look official. But what is more interesting is that Afghanistan’s President visiting Pakistan having met our generally elusive President Mamnoon Hussein and also met the Chief of the Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif. Than there was a concluding press conference with the Prime Minister as a formality in my opinion. Now interestingly Gen Raheel Sharif who I feel has managed to pull of his charm due to his resolute stance on the North Waziristan Operation Zarb e Azb where he went on to hit the enemy in the bud and that too successfully. One testimonial is that reducing Terrorist attacks across the country as a barometer of success though unfortunately many of our sons have lost their lives including many officers. Now Gen Raheel Sharif is on his way to visit Centcom ; a strategic visit by the Army Chief whilst our Prime Minister has still not been bestowed the honor of visiting United States officially. Maybe it’s a sign of things to come. Is Gen Raheel Sharif flexing his muscles as some of the Core Commanders of Gen Kiyani’s term retired in October? Or is it the international community and infact US knows who is the new go to man in Pakistan since Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been reduced to an object of ridicule in Pakistan on practically daily basis even a gaming app is out tormenting the Prime Minister.

Whilst the brewing standoff between both PMLN and PTI where finally and I mean finally both have started pointing out links of each to extremist groups. This is just vindicating my earlier theory and highlighted in the blogs that PTI took support from KPK Talibans and their likes to win elections over there and buy space for them to operate . There are a few rumors of security money being paid to Talibans by PTI office bearers in KPK . At the same time PTI has reminded the nation on PMLN’s ties with extremist groups in Punjab like Punjabi Taliban. Another confirmation why PMLN has never been a target for any Taliban attacks unlike their past attacks against other parties like ANP in KPK. PPP in Punjab and MQM in Sindh. Now what is going to be more concerning is the fact that PMLN has accused PTI recently of reaching out to extremist groups to assist in November 30th planned onslaught. Well I have no doubts that PTI has used this channel in Karachi to stay clean and do their dirty work there. But if the ruling party is accusing PTI than there has to be some basis to it. Maybe PTI is planning to take the fight to the next level. PMLN has already accused PTI of charging with the protest because of the continuing of the operation Zarb e Azb and failure of the so called peace talks which PTI wanted to lead and become a hero with. Sheikh Rasheed who is the lynchpin in my view though have one seat but has greater insights on the situation is looking ominous to me as I write this.

If the above is true than are we going into some sort of an armed struggle. Lets not forget some one is busy promoting ISIS and Daesh in Pakistan via wall chalking etc. Now in Karachi you could have accused a local party of creating fear as I heard it in some literary circles but who is doing it across Punjab where this local political party is non existent. Who is the common political denominator across? Who can use this threat more as November 30th approaches ? Why would the interior Minister seen denying the threat? I am sure it has to be serious since the effort of US to align Afghanistan and Pakistan with growing threat of ISIS as they want to exit . Their strategy is simple in the region to use technical assistance but use local forces to fight the rising threat infact eliminating it. They have gone to the extent that they have warmed up to Iran in the region to fight off ISIS in Iraq and Syria as they fail to mobilize any major Arab effort on the ground against ISIS. So now I feel that they would like a nexus of Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan to create a wall of defence to stop letting the threat spreading east wards. With a BJP government and especially Narendara Modi who is on a charm offensive internationally. US would like to see a stronger Pakistan as the orthodox India is still seen closer to Russia and US may be feeling that India might eventually tilt towards Russia as the BJP government is in the long haul for the next 8 years in my view. Knowing this amongst all the concerns . US would like to keep a hook on Pakistan and yes lets not forget China’s quest for the reemergence of the Silk Route of which Pakistan would play a key role. Don’t think US would like to leave any players in power in Pakistan who can topple their plans. Infact my view they should not as they bring balance to the situation in my view.

So what is the above developing into. PTI is not the one for to rule Pakistan. Mainly being Pro Taliban and their tilt towards Jamaat e Islami (who are anti US). PMLN again historic ties . Though a darling of the Democratic Party in the US . The re-emergence of Republican party in the US Senate means the new set up would want objective dealing with Pakistan. No dilly dallying unlike in the last few years. So who would they go to achieve all the objectives i.e. stemming of the rise of ISIS in South Asia and infact maybe ground troop requirements in the Middle East, one point of contact who controls the power and authority to assist the plans and lastly the exit from Afghanistan and a safe passage to sustain their remaining forces over there. So who would you think they would go to in Pakistan? I would leave things at this point.

As I prepared to take off for my rest after thinking through the above. What would trigger the collapse of Mr. Sharif if at all on November 30th ? Though there is resentment in his own party with a developing forward bloc by long term associates. The two Sharif’s look isolated only left with their immediate kin only seen in force. PPP on the other hand who has supported PMLN all this while is looking for a reason to break away from the un-holy alliance. Looking away and more worried about Kashmir instead of Thar and other domestic issues now a days. Gives another hint of what may have to come.

Would Mr. Sharif go on November 30th or around it? Don’t think so in my opinion. He has dug in and is looking for a fight. This is based on the current developments . But there can always be a collateral event which may trigger the change otherwise. In any ways it looks ominous. But even if he survives there would be more chinks in his armor he wears of the Prime Minister. Means a more weaker Prime Minister.

Again like I always say . For me the political forces are all playing in the mud and looks like they are enjoying it whilst the real patriots of Pakistan are laying their lives fighting terrorists across the country or chanting slogans for it and dying at the Wagah Border. I don’t care for who wins this ongoing tiff. But I am praying that change would come with someone in power who knows what it takes to defend the nation against enemies both foreign and domestic. Pakistan Zindabad!

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